Public sentiment regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions is polarized, characterized by skepticism towards Western narratives and frustration over perceived double standards in nuclear governance. Many commenters advocate for Iran's right to self-defense and criticize U.S. and Israeli actions that they believe exacerbate tensions. While some express cautious support for Iran’s nuclear capabilities as a means of deterrence, others voice deep concerns about the potential for conflict and the implications of nuclear proliferation.

Iran

United States

Israel

Western Media

My understanding is it’s near impossible for a country to develop nuclear capability undetected - and it will continue to be even more difficult as time progresses. 

Is any country without nuclear weapons essentially forever barred from becoming a world power in the future?

SubstantialBass9524

What do you think of Israel's actual nuclear arsenal and refusal to declare its nukes? Contrary to Iran having the most IAEA visits, Israel is the only country in West Asia with no IAEA visits at all. 

Do you think there are double standards somewhere?

NOOBFUNK

As a nonproliferation expert, do you think that 
a) given the current geo political instabilities, an arms race will re-start with more countries wanting nuclear weapons for self defence? Will non-proliferation work?
b) we will see a WW3 with a nuclear apocalypse like scenario? 

I apologise if these are silly but need a little reassurance from an expert :)

RigaTriesThis

What do you think of the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites during the talks?


What are your thoughts on Israel's compliance to IAEA?

EmployAltruistic647

How effective was it in your opinion to bomb nuclear sites in Iran a few months ago and how will this event shape future negotiations under this or the next administration?

Also, thanks for doing the AMA! 🙂

Mysterious-Outcome37

How do you respond to criticisms that the Iran deal should have included restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program and proxy support? Do you think Iran would ever agree to a wider deal like that if this admin were to pursue negotiations again?

Conscious-Seaweed-42

What’s the most surprising thing about working in the White House?

Otherwise-Till-2077

Also, a lot of countries cry hypocrisy given that Iran has one of the most IAEA visits and despite the IAEA still saying they don't have WMDs notwithstanding their enrichment, people seem to think Iran has nukes and war is justified. How do you think about the US directly going into Iran during the recent war? Is it a violation of international law or not?

A lot of critics suggest that America leaving the JCPOA with Iran was a big blunder. Do you think it was wise to withdraw?

Sugar_Vivid

what are your thoughts on nukes as deterrents? most major nations have them already

SynthesizedTime

Hello there, thanks for doing this AMA!

There's plenty of talk about nuclear weapons programs when it comes to nuclear proliferation - but what about dirty bombs? They don't carry the prestige or capabilities of fission bombs, but they are still of concern, particularly with non-state actors.

Are there any present concerns about them in the MENA region? How are they being addressed? Perhaps a bit outside of the scope, but given the push for smaller nuclear reactors, are there safeguards in place/in development for their protection re: non-state actors?

Oh! A bit out of left field - I heard several years ago (early 2000s) about a Russian millionaire/mob boss that had acquired a live nuclear warhead during/shortly after the fall of the USSR. Is there any credence to that story, or is it just another post-Soviet rumor? Have you heard of other similar events?

Blaskowicz

How has game theory influenced your approach to international negotiations, such as in the Iran Nuclear Deal?

charismaticeggman

Based on the events of the last twenty years or so, do you think that nonproliferation is actually achievable in the current world order?

thecastellan1115

Not strictly Iran-related but more general: With North Korea being largely safe just by mentioning their nuclear capability on one end and Ukraine having been invaded largely because they don't have nuclear weapons anymore, there seems to be a push towards nuclear armament.  How do you think will this affect nuclear proliferation in the near future? Will signatories of the NPT pull out en masse?

JimLongbow

The Russian economy is in pretty dire straits. If they lose the Ukraine war, Putin will lose power (after a short flight out of a window). What do you think will happen to Russia after that and in particular its nukes? What shape do you think those nukes are actually in right now?

Thanks.

PabloX68

What do you think about [Nuclear Update](https://nuclearupdate.com/subscribe), the pro-nuclear newsletter?

bengtoskar

Does Iran actively tries to get a nuclear weapon, and are they sincere with cooperating with international countries in that aspect?


And fell free to ignore this one, someone said that Iran is a country of moderate people leaded by fanatics.


Do you agree with it?


Thank you very much.

Admirable-Crazy-3457

Do you think it’s possible to see a direct conflict (non proxy) hot war between two nuclear powers?

Lithium-eleon

A country who breaks all the rules, doesn’t cooperate, and routinely calls for the destruction of western nations can be dealt with rationally?

smakusdod


Table of Questions and Answers. Original answer linked - Please upvote the original questions and answers. (I'm a bot.)
***

Question | Answer | Link
---------|----------|----------|
What do you think of the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites during the talks?   What are your thoughts on Israel's compliance to IAEA?|I think that it would have been better all round if Israel had waited to see what the diplomatic process would bring. I know that Israel had concerns about Iran’s potential to move quickly to nuclear weapons, but the Administration was about to hold another round and it is possible that a deal could have been found.  It’s a lot harder to get deals after bombs have been dropped.  I think Israel’s decision suggests that they didn’t have much confidence as to what kind of deal would come out of that process, which is also troubling for a whole bunch of reasons. As for Israel and the IAEA, Israel never signed the NPT.  Just like India and Pakistan, it therefore does not have a legal obligation to allow IAEA inspections throughout the country.|[Here](/r/AMA/comments/1nvftgt/im_a_nuclear_nonproliferation_expert_and_diplomat/nh8bzkz/)
My understanding is it’s near impossible for a country to develop nuclear capability undetected - and it will continue to be even more difficult as time progresses.  Is any country without nuclear weapons essentially forever barred from becoming a world power in the future?|Well, I don’t know.  Iraq got pretty close before the first Gulf War.  India and Pakistan were able to produce nuclear weapons.  I guess you could say that they were detected but they weren’t stopped.  Iran may be able to do so still.  If Libya hadn’t been such a small program and dysfunctional mess, they probably could have made a lot more progress.  A lot of other countries played with the technology in the 60s and 70s…I think the real issue is that since the NPT negotiated in 1968, you basically have removed a lot of the security concerns that countries would have that might make them want nuclear weapons.  But, if those security concerns come back, would countries be willing to risk it?  Because while it is probably true that detecting nuclear proliferation is easier now, its also probably true that advances in the science make working towards nuclear weapons easier too…  As for barred from being a world power, I don’t really think so.  I mean, there are lots of countries without nuclear weapons that are “world powers,” if you count that in political or economic terms.  Canada isn’t.  Germany isn’t.  UAE isn’t.  Japan isn’t.  Yes, they all probably could be if they wanted to, but that’s not the same thing.|[Here](/r/AMA/comments/1nvftgt/im_a_nuclear_nonproliferation_expert_and_diplomat/nh8fx5u/)
What do you think of Israel's actual nuclear arsenal and refusal to declare its nukes? Contrary to Iran having the most IAEA visits, Israel is the only country in West Asia with no IAEA visits at all.  Do you think there are double standards somewhere?|Look, people don’t like this answer but it is true: Iran signed the NPT and got the benefits of being an NPT state, but made the sacrifice of accepting IAEA inspections and the requirement not to build nuclear weapons.  Iran had a choice, it made it, and there is an obligation to hold it to its responsibilities.  That’s what every other country who signed the NPT asks of the rest of us: that all NPT non-nuclear weapon states be held to their obligations.  Because that’s how they have their own security, that’s why they agreed to join the NPT too.  Israel did not sign the NPT and is under no such obligation.  Now, you may not like that Israel hasn’t signed the NPT but that is a different issue.  If you want the Israelis to accept the NPT and IAEA safeguards, you need to convince them that it is in their national interest to do so.|[Here](/r/AMA/comments/1nvftgt/im_a_nuclear_nonproliferation_expert_and_diplomat/nh8jdac/)
How effective was it in your opinion to bomb nuclear sites in Iran a few months ago and how will this event shape future negotiations under this or the next administration?  Also, thanks for doing the AMA! 🙂|I think it was probably very effective in terms of damaging the “big” nuclear program.  Iran really would have a hard time extracting uranium from the dirt its mined from, turning it into usable material for producing weapons, and that sort of thing.  A lot of those facilities were destroyed and that’s a loss of material, time, energy, money that you can’t rebuild quickly.  I have many more questions about whether it was effective in preventing Iran from producing nuclear weapons.  Iran still has at least a few bombs worth of highly enriched uranium in the country and it is probably in places that it would be very hard to attack.  Iran probably has the ability to turn that material into bomb parts and then either test a device or field a crude weapon.  Probably not something they can mount on a missile quickly, but a bomb nonetheless.  I can’t prove it but that’s kind of my point: you also can’t prove that Iran can’t and that’s because inspectors are out.  The Israelis say they can spot it and maybe they can!  But, they can’t guarantee it and neither can anyone else.  That’s a real risk.  As for future talks, I think it probably makes them harder on net.  Look, it is possible that the Iranians can make a deal more easily since we’re not asking them to dismantle their facilities …that’s the best argument I’ve seen.  But, they’ve also, you know, been attacked and they really don’t trust the United States, the Europeans, the Russians or anyone else.  That makes me really nervous as to their intentions.|[Here](/r/AMA/comments/1nvftgt/im_a_nuclear_nonproliferation_expert_and_diplomat/nh8etms/)
Are nukes bad?|Nukes are bad, mkay.|[Here](/r/AMA/comments/1nvftgt/im_a_nuclear_nonproliferation_expert_and_diplomat/nh8hmfs/)
A lot of critics suggest that America leaving the JCPOA with Iran was a big blunder. Do you think it was wise to withdraw?|No, it was a disaster.  And we see that now.  Look, the JCPOA may not have been perfect, but if we’d implemented it, we’d have a lot more time to deal with the problem and with the ability to tell everyone that we fulfilled the deal, that it was the Iranians who were the ones causing problems, etc.  Don’t forget: Iran started to break out of the constraints in 2019.  So, that’s six years ago.  If you do that math, we’d face maybe the same Iranian nuclear program today after the JCPOA was over in say 2036.  That’s a long time from now.  Think about what we might have done with the years from 2019-2036 to address our concerns with Iran on the whole.  Yes, Iran would have had the benefits of sanctions relief and it could have done crazy things like arm the Houthis and Hezbollah with missiles…oh wait, it did that anyway.  OK, there would be more…maybe?  Maybe not?  Because maybe the Iran we’d be dealing with then would be a different place.  And if you say, “that’s a lot of maybes” – that’s right!  But there are also a lot of maybes in the conclusion that Iran would absolutely be pursuing nuclear weapons in 2030.  That’s an assumption, not a fact.  It’s a theory, a hypothesis.  And I’m willing to say I would have rather been facing that problem in five years time – at worst! – than what we have today.|[Here](/r/AMA/comments/1nvftgt/im_a_nuclear_nonproliferation_expert_and_diplomat/nh8j49l/)
How do you respond to criticisms that the Iran deal should have included restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program and proxy support? Do you think Iran would ever agree to a wider deal like that if this admin were to pursue negotiations again?|I think the criticism is fair as a strategic matter, but look, we did try.  Its not like we didn’t raise the missile issue.  There was a serious attempt to include them in the JCPOA.  And the regional issues came up in discussions.  Iran made abundantly clear it would not accept any deal that involved missiles or the region.  And, in fact, other countries in the region objected to any regional deal that didn’t include them.  So, there was a clear sense that it would be impossible to get those issues in.  And the other members of the negotiating group (the Russians, UK, French, Germans, Chinese, and EU) agreed that we shouldn’t tackle those issues.  Soooooo, even if I wanted it, there just wasn’t a chance.  Now, I thought in 2015 and I think now that the right choice would be to negotiate a further deal afterwards that dealt with missiles and the region, perhaps involving other negotiators.  I published a lot of papers and reports, including through the Brookings Institution with Bob Einhorn, arguing for that.  The current Administration chose a different approach.|[Here](/r/AMA/comments/1nvftgt/im_a_nuclear_nonproliferation_expert_and_diplomat/nh8jhxa/)
What do you think about [Nuclear Update](https://nuclearupdate.com/subscribe), the pro-nuclear newsletter?|Can’t say I follow it.|[Here](/r/AMA/comments/1nvftgt/im_a_nuclear_nonproliferation_expert_and_diplomat/nh8n8em/)

---
[Source](https://github.com/johnsliao/ama_compiler)

ama_compiler_bot

Can you understand countries‘ reluctance to give up their nuclear weapons after seeing what happened to Ukraine after they gave up theirs?

leberkaesweckle42

Poland and Germany are often mentioned as potential new nuclear weapons states. In the case of Germany this is because its objectively perceived interests may drive it that way, but it’ll take some doing to convince the German people. In Poland things may be very different, however. What are your thoughts on this?

ahnotme

Was it a good idea to bomb their Natanz nuclear site?

Agitated_Macaron9054

Let's reverse positions, you are now the "Leader" of Iran, what would you do?

Unknown-U

Have you ever read the 100th Monkey?   I’m assuming yes…thoughts?

xchrisrionx

[deleted]

Can any country build nuclear weapons in complete secrecy?

Africaspaceman

Don't have a question but thank you for all you do!

210sankey

How did you react to the Semaphor reports about the connection between US Negotiator Richard Malley and the Iranian government backed Iran Experts Initiative? Do you think it was blown out of proportion/an attempt at track two diplomacy, or do you think it weakened the US’s negotiating position?

JakobtheRich

What do you think of Kenneth Waltz's Neorealist thesis in regards to the Middle East? Would a nuclear-armed Iran as a counterweight to a Nuclear-armed Israel serve to balance the region through a bipolar system?

A_devout_monarchist

In your opinion why no one is talking about Isreal nuclear program and why it is not under control and investigation just like the Iranian? 

Have IAFA ever discussed this matter and (concerns if any) in public?

Salt-Island75

What would you reply to the argument “FDR asked no one’s permission, neither did Stalin, why should modern leaders not have it, would the world not be safer?”

Mediocre-Ebb9862

How could US be wrong about Iraq having WMD in 2000s?


Was there a shadow of possibility? Or were they purposefully lying so they could start a war?

KeyApplication221

Do you think that people who convinced Ukraine to give up nukes bear some responsibility for what’s happening now?

If you had the opportunity to make JCPOA 2.0 what would it include that JCPOA didn't.

Forward_Tie_5841

Is it in fact T r u m p ' s fault? 

(Spaced because of REDDIT censorship)

Limp-Mastodon4600

Do you think Pakistan will ever be forced to give up its nukes by the USA

What were the flaws in the agreement that lead to the deals collapse?

Were Irans nuclear facilities really destroyed by usa and Israel?

GrapeSpecialist6174

How does it feel to work for 15 years and then an orange toddler destroys everything?

AverellCZ

I’ve been working under the assumption that pretty much anyone with enough dedication and money could nuclear Boy Scout their way to some form a nuclear weapon. Like any billionaire could have a bunch. How far wrong am I?

beatrixbrie

Go to the actual AMA guys, questions here won't be answered.

Uranophane

To what level did Iran enrich its Uranium? Are there civilian applications for Uranium enriched to that level? Where did Iran get the carbon fiber, maraging steel and vacuum pumps for its "domestically produced" centrifuges?

TopsyPopsy

Who do you blame for the failure of the deal?

Chevy_jay4

What is the incentive for iran to now negotiate? 


Context is on whim targetted attacks on iranian leadership by Israel. I am assuming this is with US approval also ? 

Why would Iran negotiate? And what is the sanctity of western commitments ?

lukup

It looks like he only answered questions in the actual AMA sub. Some good insight though

Will512

How far beyond the limits of the NPT does the deal allow Iran to go? 

Colodanman357

The Iran deal was a joke, I'm all for non-profilration , and de-esclation in the realm of nukes , however Iran pretty much kept doing what it wanted, blocked investigators, hid centrifuges, and as seen in the recent 12 day war was very close to obtaining the thresholdevel to make nuclear weapons.

Psychological-Flow55

Trump said the other day that they have new nukes. He used the word new. He also said they have more than anybody when I thought the Russians had the most, officially.

Is that legal?

Can treaty members develop new nukes as long as they decommission one for every new one they make?

Cheers

Please discuss politics in r/nuclearpolitics

ScrappyPunkGreg

I can't think of any way you or I could verify it, but [the Iranian foreign minister claims ](https://thehill.com/policy/international/5414085-iran-foreign-minister-nuclear-sites-destroyed/)they were destroyed and that Iran plans to rebuild them.

[US intel claims one of three sites](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/new-us-assessment-finds-american-strikes-destroyed-only-one-three-iran-rcna218761).

GogurtFiend

Still no credible evidence Iran was actively trying to make a nuke. All the US destroyed was a diplomatic bargaining chip. But they will definitely rebuild.

Significant_Goose_75

We won't know for sure until if or when Iran tests a nuclear device.

For years Iran used an open approach under the JCPOA collaborating with the IAEA to avoid being subject to sanctions from the West, Russia and China. They deliberately stayed a threshold power hoping that this would be sufficient to maintain deterrence. They were isolated from everyone and

Three things have changed: 
1. That deterrence failed when Iran was attacked by both Israel and the US. 
2. Now Europe has imposed the punitive "snap back sanctions" for violating the agreement. The US was already doing this.
3. Iran is no longer isolated with China and Russia declaring the snap back sanctions are illegal. Iran now has allies and friends among the BRICS and non-aligned countries who will not only trade with it but even defend it. It is less isolated than Israel and arguably the United States. 

The appropriate response is nuclear ambiguity, the same policy Israel has adopted for decades. 

To provide a pretext  for another attack, at some stage Israel &amp; the US may claim they've discovered Iran has resumed it's nuclear program. Israel and US intelligence services (and those of their allies) are no longer credible given their track record. 

Iran has the support it needs to continue a clandestine nuclear program should it choose to do so. Sadly another Israeli attack is almost inevitable regardless of genuine evidence.

Galerita

fpsfiend_ny

Jcopa the thing that trump withdrew from on his first term? IAEA were welcomed in Iran until the gave targeting data to US and isreal for their nuclear scientists, I think it's a bit mad to expect them to keep going along with the wests charades

Pleasant-Ad9112

The world doesn't respect the UN or the US anymore.

Parking-Engine-3600

I've always said that the discovery of intelligent alien life is going to be archaeological in nature, not diplomatic. As in 99.9999999% of intelligent life will never make it past stage 0 and will meet extinction on the world of their origin. 



Add humanity to the list.

Styx_Zidinya

Well if NK, Iran, China, and Russia feel there shouldn't be restrictions to their programs, I'm not sure why South Korea, TAIWAN, India, Saudi, others, should feel differently.

Sasquatchii

Why can’t other countries have nuclear weapons? Why does the US get to restrict who does and doesn’t have them?

lvegilfs

The way some of you imbeciles are talkiing. About disbanding the UN as a good thing. If this is in any way a representative opinion, there will be a new world war. And by god, you will grovel and cry for another UN then.

BrasshatTaxman

Ok nice. It's time that Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine start a nuclear development program. Just in case.

The5YenGod

“Rules based international order”

Rules for you - order for us. 

Foreign-Chocolate86

Is anybody read what is written? No this is not the dissolution of UN and No this does not give permission to Iran to build nukes or to any other country. 

It says the restrictions spesifacly put on Iran 10 years ago is expired and now Iran will be seen as any other country with non-weapon nuclear program. 

The europeans tried to sustain the restrictions with spesific "snapback" mechanism. This mechanism was implemented to be used if Iran was in breach of this resolution. Though Iran was mostly in line with the resolution so the resolution is expiring the date that set when it was implemented.

This is no "evil" Russia and China action. This is just something finishing when it was intented to finish.

More_Seesaw1544

The world is breaking down and new movement from the east is emerging. New world order will be led by China and only those who follow will survive and prosper. West is where the sun is going down and East is where the sun is rising, this is Mother Nature rule!!!

Contactphoqq

Time for european countries to build it own nukes. We can't just rely on France and Britain having a few.

LegendaryLamaX

Is there any news article where you can find more information? All the news for the last 3 weeks was at the Snapback provisions went into effect two weeks ago.

cobrakai11

Even UN peacekeepers was a farce, look at what happened in Rowanda for example, peacekeepers just watched, instead of I don’t know,…. Getting reinforcements and making peace through killing the armed perpetrators

Careless-Pragmatic

Well, the nuclear resolution was all about letting me have some weapons. My friends have some weapon because we are the cool guys, but not you. Israel doesn't abide by it. Why should Iran?

Popular_Tension_5788

Well good thing the B2’s knocked their nuclear capabilities back by… 1 year 🥲

reddithater212

This is another beginning of a World War and now with more nuclear on the table. This is a disaster of a timeline. This is how the League of Nations fell apart and war followed. Oppenheimer saw this coming and it will be our downfall.

justaround99

Klutzy_Passenger_486

At least they waited for the treaty to run out instead of breaking it as the US and ultimately the EU did, the US because Trump and the EU because they failed to follow on their commitments because the US threatened them.

elrelampago1988

Just another lie has been exposed. When you have money, power &amp; nuclear you can do whatever you want just like every rich people on the planets.

ChelseaFCManiac

HumanChallet

It really doesn't matter. It didn't work anymore anyways.

NonJumpingRabbit

Igiem

The experts were right… we are second till midnight.  With the clock now sped up.

Conscious-Trust4547

I mean, they were already breaking it anyway, so what’s the difference? It’s just official now, though everybody knew it anyway.

Minimum-Enthusiasm14

Lets all get nuclear weapons. What could go wrong.

RevenueBusiness6603

Grouchy-Crew-7885

The U.N. has been neutered since the U.S. invaded Iraq.

Dry_Junket_6902

Hey guys. Did you hear about the new ballroom at the White House? Pretty cool, right?

Nathanhj

Tactical nukes FOR EVERYBODY

The third world has been truly liberated

Accomplished-List988

Exatex

So how long before the Spirit Store opens up in the UN building?

urbanlife78

attackkillertomatoes

Fuck all the politicans and shits that just want to destroy everything and everyone.

Potetosyeah

Scholarind

I expect (with reasonable amount of optimism - some good news from Ukraine.

TheflyingAntz

Well we know these MAGA chuds are cheering

https://preview.redd.it/fsfqvxjp2yvf1.jpeg?width=1290&amp;format=pjpg&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=b01515cd10f4ecf46e501b091b96502cd30ff519

SiWeyNoWay

J-is-rowen

obama in july 2015:

“The reason is because there are really only two alternatives here — Either the issue of Iran receiving a nuclear weapon is resolved diplomatically, or it is done through force.”

and now the diplomatic pathway no longer exists. go figure.

regarded-cfd-trader

Yeah, putting that 100% in Trumps teeny tiny lap.

Time-Cucumber3961

Time for the west to realise they need Israel and to get behind them fully - they are the only state in the region with the willingness to shut Iran down.

magicbellend

Roosevelt was wrong and Truman wasn't strong enough. Unfortunately George Kennan was right about a lot of things.

Tight_Isopod6969

Well maybe Trump will just claim that it didn’t happen and that he ended another war. And considering Israel is bombing Gaza again today so much for the cease-fire. 
What’s so scary about this is Maga is really so fucking stupid that they don’t understand that this world is dangerous and because they want to own people they don’t even know, (like liberals walking their dogs are the real danger to the world) they’re letting a fool reek havoc that could even exterminate their own children. They can’t imagine that people like Putin are actually dangerous.

MikeinSonoma

ANUBISseyes2

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has asserted that the country will rebuild its nuclear capabilities following U.S. strikes, continuing uranium enrichment amidst an ongoing geopolitical standoff.

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